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Prop edge
calculator
This is the same engine that seeds our board, opened up. Put in a projection and the two prices, and it tells you whether there's a bet there — the de-vigged market number, your edge, expected value, and what to actually stake.
The prop
Nothing you type is sent anywhere. The simulation runs on your machine.
Pick a prop or enter your own, then hit Run it. You'll get the de-vigged market probability, your edge, expected value, a stake, and where the prop would land on our bracket.
What the numbers mean
Reading the output
De-vigged probability
What the market really thinks, with the juice stripped out. Comparing your projection to the raw posted price instead of this one is the most common way to invent an edge that isn't there.
Edge vs EV
Edge is the probability gap. EV is what you actually earn at the offered price. A prop can have positive edge and negative EV — that's the vig eating a thin advantage, and it's a pass.
Stake
Quarter Kelly, capped by tier. Full Kelly assumes your numbers are exactly right. They aren't, and betting like they are is how good models still bust.
Don't want to enter projections yourself?
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