Auto-graded · nothing removed · nothing invented

Track
record

Every seed posts publicly with a timestamp and grades itself overnight. The losing months stay up, and until there are graded months there are no numbers here. A record with no cold stretch in it is a marketing asset, not a record — and a record with no bets in it is worse.

Nothing graded yet

There is no record to show. We haven't posted a public board long enough to have one, and we're not going to invent units, hit rates, or a convenient losing month to look credible.

From the first public slate on, every seed is timestamped when it posts and graded overnight against final box scores. Net units, hit rate by seed tier, closing line value and month-by-month results will appear on this page automatically — wins and losses alike.

By seed tier

What will be reported here

Flat one-unit bets on every posted seed, at the odds shown when it posted, broken out by tier.

TierWhat it isRecordHit %Units
1–4The chalk
5–8Quiet edges
9–12Correlation plays
13–16Live dogs (quarter units)

Live dogs are graded in their own bucket at quarter units, so they can never flatter the headline number.

Read this before you read the numbers

How to judge a track record

Units beat record

Hit rate without prices attached is meaningless. A 58% record on heavy favorites can still be a losing year. Units are what's left after the vig.

Closing line value is the tell

Beating the close consistently says the process is finding real edges. Short-run results say almost nothing — a hot month can be noise.

Sample size is everything

A few thousand graded props is enough to have an opinion about. Anyone showing you a 40-pick sample and a screenshot is showing you variance.

Past results don't predict future ones. Cold stretches are coming. Bankroll accordingly.

Fill out your bracket.

A free 1-seed drops every morning at 9am ET. No card to look, no calls, no “DM me for the play.”